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Lucky Exchange Haunted Sickle Drop Rate Analysis

Hi everyone! In this article I share with you my report on the Haunted Sickle Lucky Exchange drop rate analysis (with Terra Grass and Potency items) called the Limited Haunted Sickle Exchange.

Report Findings & Expectations Part 1

  • This Lucky Exchange showed very interesting items when it appeared. Pretty much all the rewards dropping from it are useful items both to low BR and high BR players (all except Animation stones which are maxed for many players). But of course it was interesting to analyze and see if the actual result was actually as good as expected or not.
  • As Terra Grass, Dragon’s Whisper and Perfume Chests were both in “Normal” and “Rare” rewards I did expect or hope that we will get more drops from these and we will see in the results below that they did indeed drop albeit not in large amounts.

Data Table and Picture Report

I have prepared both a table format and a picture report format (and I also add additional tables/data from 2 other players who emailed me) so you can choose to look at whatever version you prefer. The picture is very large, so click on it to enlarge. Here is the thumbnail for the picture report and below that the table version:

Note: please also note, as mentioned on the picture report that this is report with 200 Exchanges done. So, as the sample size is huge, this report is only good to get an decent idea about the exchange but should not be expected to be super-duper accurate (I will try to make an update later if I get more chests and decide to do more of this exchange).

Haunted Sickle Drops Analysis Table Report

Normal Drops

Icon Items Dropped Drop Rate Item TTL 1 in chance
3x Cast Stones 11.4% 69 ~1 in 9
10x Cast Stones 1.5% 30 ~1 in 67
5x Polishing Orbs 18.3% 185 ~1 in 5
10x Polishing Orbs 3.0% 60 ~1 in 34
5x Sylph Soul Orbs 17.3% 175 ~1 in 6
10x Sylph Soul Orbs 1.0% 20 ~1 in 101
3x Animation Stones 14.4% 87 ~1 in 7
10x Animation Stones 1.0% 20 ~1 in 101
10x Talent Stones 9.9% 200 ~1 in 10
50x Talent Stones 1.5% 150 ~1 in 67
4x Smelting Stones 14.4% 290 ~1 in 7
10x Smelting Stones 1.5% 30 ~1 in 67
5x Dragon’s Whisper 0.5% 5 ~1 in 202
10x Dragon’s Whisper 0.5% 10 ~1 in 202
5x Terra Grass 2.5% 25 ~1 in 40
10x Terra Grass 0.5% 10 ~1 in 202
5x Perfume Chest 0.5% 5 ~1 in 202
10x Perfume Chest 0.5% 10 ~1 in 202

Additional Drops

Icon Items Dropped Drop Rate Item TTL 1 in chance
1x Wraithstone 32.2% 65 ~1 in 3
2x Wraithstones 1.0% 4 ~1 in 101
10x Wraithstones 0.0% 0

Total Haunted Sickle Used = 202

Report Findings & Expectations Part 2

  • Wraithstones were actually as expected. Very often the “Additional Items” or rewards dropped are around 33% in Wartune. It is not always like this but I’ve seen it often. So in this case getting 65 drops of 1 Wraithstone was really useless – a very insignificant amount. But can be considered as something small / extra on the side.
  • As expected, the Terra Grass and Potency items dropped rarely, but did drop, so not as bad as the first rare Terra Grass configuration. Terra Grass had a drop rate of 3% in total or 35 from 200 exchanges. The Dragon’s Whisper was tougher at 1% or 15 items in total. And Perfume Chest was similar to that as well.
  • When it comes to other “Normal” item drops it was clearly observer that the smaller quantity of the 2 versions of the same item had about 11%-18% drop rate while the larger amount had a low frequency of 1%-3%. This is not surprising and logically would be expected. However, because of so many small quantities dropped the total yield from the 200 event chests I would say is not very high.

Additional Drops from 2 players:

I also received additional data I received by email / message from 2 other Wartune players which I share here. It was already aggregated so it was not possible to combine with mine where I opened 1 by 1 and wrote every drop, but it is still interesting to see:

Firstly thanks to John for the following data:

Items 1st 100 2nd 100 3rd 100 TOTAL
Perfume chest 15 0 10 25
Dragon’s Whispher 10 25 0 35
Smelting Stone 58 36 46 140
Wraithstone 31 32 31 94
Talent stone 90 170 170 430
Terra grass 15 25 40 80
Animation stone 98 60 80 238
Cast stone 37 58 78 173
Polishing orb 125 90 65 280
Sylph soul orb 80 110 75 265

And secondly thanks to Francisco for the following data in pictures:

Conclusion and Discussion

I hope you like my report and that it helps you / Wartune players get a decent idea of what to expect which should help make good decisions.

  • Did the results in this report surprise you?
  • Are you going to participate in this Exchange or plan to wait for better events later on?
  • Were you excited by this Wartune event?

Matched Links from DolyGames Sites / Google


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  1. Hello COSMOS in advance thank you so much for ur great job.
    When u was doing that analysis did u use 100 at same time or so?

    • Hi, thanks for appreciating my work.
      I know some players believe that there is a difference if you open 1 by 1 or in bulk, but there has never been any proof for this theory – it is more like a religious belief. Long ago when I worked on a similar system the item drops were created simply by assigning probabilities to each item, which means that it has no meaning if one opens 1 by 1 or any amount – each opening has an X% chance for each item to drop.

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