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Lucky Exchange Drop Rate Analysis #2 [Clothing Shards]

Hey guys, in this article I share with you the drop rate analysis in Wartune’s Lucky Exchange – version with Clothing Shards (this is report #2 using a different event cycle). This report is from Feb 2017 using the Magister’s Note Event Item and the clothing items being the Endless Night. That said, all Clothing Shard Lucky Exchanges are expected to be the same in drop rates so this analysis should be a very good reference for anyone who wants to estimate their Clothing Shard gain or considering to participate in this specific event.

Commentary is below the report.

Drop Rates Commentary and Comparison with Previous Report

Gold x400000 is the most frequent drop from the Lucky Exchange falling 1 out of 2 times, so half of the time it will be gold 🙂

Comparison: 53.4% in this report vs. 55.9% (also 1 in 2) in the last one.

The Eudaemon items all together (Eudaemon Warpath Crystal x4 + Eudaemon RES Reduction Essence x3 + Eudaemon Resistance Essence x4) add up to just over 25%, so 1/4th of the time we can expect a drop from these.

Comparison: 26.6% in this report vs. 23.7% in the last one.

Then we have the Pure Refinement Crystal x4 and Mount Hoof x4, which are probably the most unwanted items. The Mount Hoofs’ drop is a bit too high for my liking, at 12.6% (11.2% previously) – wish it was 5% or less. Whereas the Pure Refinement Crystal is at 5.2% (5.5% previously), so won’t complain too much about it 🙂

Next we have the various clothing items. I believe their rate is set to be equal and if we would open a million chests we would probably see that. But on this sample of 1416 “chests” we have some variations because they drop only 1 out of 40 chests. Still, all together they are at about 2.3%.

Comparison: Total 2.3% in this report vs. 2.1% in the last one. This difference was enough to move the ratio from 1 in 50 down to 1 in 40. But anyhow, it is a very similar result.

Lastly, we have the most interesting item for those who do not yet have all the clothing sets from the Clothing Exchange – the clothing shards. These are shown on a separate line because they can be a direct or indirect drop from the Lucky Exchange. There are also several different options starting from x1 and going up to the rare x10 amounts per drop, but all together from 1416 “chests” 592 clothing shards were received making it a 41.8% return (40.6% previously), so very roughly speaking almost half of “chests” will be clothing shards.

A special note for x10 clothing shard drop: this is not shown on the report above but I took a note of these and from the 1416 sample there were 12 occurrences (8 previously) of a x10 shard drop, which is 0.85% (0.53% previosuly). However, Wartune being as it is, it does make a difference if you get lucky to have these or not, especially on a smaller amount of “chests”.

Matched Links from DolyGames Sites / Google


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  2. Who would open them rather exchanging for stones or adv henna anyway?

    • A lot of people open them both during stone/henna events and when those events are not running.
      And furthermore reports like this help people estimate their rewards and therefore make accurate strategy decisions for their characters.

      Hope this report/work was interesting for you,

  3. Is this the exchange with Wings? And there were no Wings drops?

    • “Total of 3 clothing items”

    • hi, no, i have not written anywhere anything about wings

      • thanks very informative.

      • 🙂

  4. Surely the chances of getting all three should be 1 in 400 not one in 40?

    • there is no option of getting all 3
      to get a clothing item the odds are 2.3% as indicated which is roughly 1 in 40

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