Lucky Exchange Blood Dagger III Drop Rate Analysis

Hi everyone! In this article I share with you my report on the Blood Dagger Lucky Exchange drop rate analysis (with Ascension Stones) called the Limited Blood Dagger Exchange.

Report Findings & Expectations Part 1

• This Lucky Exchange was interesting to see. Pretty much all the rewards dropping from it are useful items both to low BR and high BR players. But of course it was interesting to analyze and see if the actual result was actually as good as expected or not.
• The Pennant Ascension Stones are made to look as more available. There are 2 drops in the “Normal” items and 2 more in the “Rare” items. However, as you will see from the data they don’t actually drop much and if you do get 10-20 of them – that quantity is negligible compared to how much is needed for Ascension.
• So I thought the main focus of this Exchange will be to gather a whole range of useful rewards (which I thought to be more interesting than the 2 other lucky exchanges)
  

Data Table and Picture Report

I have prepared both a table format and a picture report format so you can choose to look at whatever version you prefer. The picture is very large, so click on it to enlarge. Here is the thumbnail for the picture report and below that the table version:

Note: please also note, as mentioned on the picture report that this is a preliminary report with 100 Exchanges done. So, as the sample size is not big, this report is only good to get an decent idea about the exchange but should not be expected to be super-duper accurate (I will try to make an update later if I get more chests and decide to do more of this exchange).

Blood Dagger III Drops Analysis Table Report

Normal Drops

Icon	Items Dropped	Drop Rate	Item TTL	1 in chance
	3x Cast Stones	15.0%	45	~1 in 7
	10x Cast Stones	0.0%	0
	3x Polishing Orbs	13.0%	39	~1 in 8
	10x Polishing Orbs	2.0%	20	~1 in 50
	3x Smelting Stones	19.0%	57	~1 in 5
	10x Smelting Stones	2.0%	20	~1 in 50
	5x Charge Fragments	11.0%	55	~1 in 9
	20x Charge Fragments	3.0%	60	~1 in 33
	3x Animation Stones	15.0%	45	~1 in 7
	10x Animation Stones	1.0%	10	~1 in 100
	2x Sylph Soul Orbs	17.0%	34	~1 in 6
	10x Sylph Soul Orbs	1.0%	10	~1 in 100
	5x Pennant Ascension Stones	0.0%	0
	10x Pennant Ascension Stones	1.0%	10	~1 in 100
	30x Pennant Engrave Stones	0.0%	0
	50x Pennant Engrave Stones	0.0%	0
		100.0%

Additional Drops

Icon	Items Dropped	Drop Rate	Item TTL	1 in chance
	1x Wraithstone	37.0%	37	~1 in 3
	2x Wraithstones	0.0%	0
	10x Wraithstones	0.0%	0
		37.0%

Total Blood Dagger Used = 100

Report Findings & Expectations Part 2

• Wraithstones were actually as expected. Very often the “Additional Items” or rewards dropped are around 33% in Wartune. It is not always like this but I’ve seen it often. So in this case getting 37 drops of 1 Wraithstone was really useless – a very insignificant amount. But can be considered as something small / extra on the side.
• As expected, Pennant Ascension Stones did not drop. The 1 drop I got in this data came from the Rare Item and that was probably a lucky draw as I suspect that specific drop to be more rare.
• When it comes to other “Normal” item drops it was clearly observer that the smaller quantity of the 2 versions of the same item had about 15%-17% drop rate while the larger amount had a low frequency of 1%-3%. This is not surprising and logically would be expected. However, because of so many small quantities dropped the total yield from 100 event chests I would say is not high.

Conclusion and Discussion

I hope you like my report and that it helps you / Wartune players get a decent idea of what to expect which should help make good decisions.

• In the 3rd column I have added up the total quantities of all items I received and my conclusion is that the total rewards were not very interesting in exchange for 100 event chests. So I am not very motivated to do more of this exchange unless there is no other good option. However, even if there is no other good exchange we do have the option of converting all our event chests into mini items to be used for mini-item direct hot event exchanges such as getting more Symbiosis Stones, Clothing Shards and Clothing Refinement Stones.
• Did the results in this report surprise you?
• Will you participate in this Exchange or plan to wait for better events for Pennant Ascension Stones later on?
• Were you excited by this Wartune event?