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Lucky Exchange Drop Rate Analysis [Clothing Shards]

Hey guys, in this article I share with you the drop rate analysis in Wartune’s Lucky Exchange – version with Clothing Shards. This specific one is from Jan 2017 with the clothing items being the Fiery Legion. That said, all Clothing Shard Lucky Exchanges are the same in drop rates so this analysis should be a very good reference for anyone who wants to estimate their Clothing Shard gain or considering to participate in this specific event.

Commentary is below the report.

Lucky Exchange Drop Rate Analysis Clothing Shards

Drop Rates Commentary

Gold x400000 is the most frequent drop from the Lucky Exchange falling 1 out of 2 times, so half of the time it will be gold 🙂

The Eudaemon items all together (Eudaemon Warpath Crystal x4 + Eudaemon RES Reduction Essence x3 + Eudaemon Resistance Essence x4) add up to almost 25%, so 1/4th of the time we can expect a drop from these.

Then we have the Pure Refinement Crystal x4 and Mount Hoof x4, which are probably the most unwanted items. The Mount Hoofs’ drop is a bit too high for my liking, at 11.2% – wish it was 5% or less. Whereas the Pure Refinement Crystal is at 5.5%, so won’t complain too much about it 🙂

Next we have the various clothing items. I believe their rate is set to be equal and if we would open a million chests we would probably see that. But on this sample of 1500 we have some variations because they drop only 1 out of 50 chests. Still, all together they are at about 2.1%.

Lastly, we have the most interesting item for those who do not yet have all the clothing sets from the Clothing Exchange – the clothing shards. These are shown on a separate line because they can be a direct or indirect drop from the Lucky Exchange. There are also several different options starting from x1 and going up to the rare x10 amounts per drop, but all together from 1500 “chests” 609 clothing shards were received making it a 40.6% return, so very roughly speaking almost half of “chests” will be clothing shards.

A special note for x10 clothing shard drop: this is not shown on the report above but I took a note of these and from the 1500 sample there were 8 occurrences of a x10 shard drop, which is 0.53% or 1 in 190 attempts. However, Wartune being as it is, it does make a difference if you get lucky to have these or not, especially on a smaller amount of “chests”.

Matched Links from DolyGames Sites / Google


  1. thank you for all your hard work

    • tyty 🙂

  2. It seems that clothing drops have become much less frequent. Have you noticed that at all, or is it just my imagination… running away with me???

    • I didn’t feel that but let’s see maybe others will also comment their thoughts
      – Cosmos
      P.S. for me these clothing are just for engulfing, I mostly look for shards so I can get full sets

  3. Thank you so much for all that you do.

    • thanks for the kind words 🙂
      – Cosmos

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