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Limited Pennant Exchange Drop Rate Report

Hi everyone! In this article I am helping players make a decision for exchanging your Metal Gear (Wartune event chests) by sharing with you this Pennant Exchange drop rate report I have prepared.

The Exchange of interest in this case was the Limited Pennant Exchange (we are familiar already with the other exchanges). In this Pennant Exchange players were disappointed at the stupidity of game admins of putting very common green pennants in Rare Rewards, however, I personally was interested and curious about the secondary reward of Clothing Shards. Therefore, mostly ignoring the “normal” and “rare” rewards I wanted to find out and give you the answer of how much are the clothing shards dropping to help decide if this exchange is worth it for the players.

So, on the picture report below you can see the results. The report is based on 481 chests of data, which is a good enough sample size to accurately estimate larger or more frequent drop rates.

The Main Finding

The key piece of information from this report I believe is the drop rate of the clothing shards which stands at 0.32 pieces per 1 event chest or 32.4% of all exchanged chests or 1 piece from 3 chests. This is actually a familiar quantity which we have seen in previous reports and normally this is sufficiently interesting to participate in the Limited Pennant Exchange if you are interested in clothing shards.

Secondary Findings

I’ll also share observations on the “normal” rewards:

  • Cast Stones, surprisingly, dropped very little. You don’t even get 1 piece from 1 chest. So if you exchange 1000 chests you can expect 428 Cast Stones, which is a smaller amount than I had expected. So this alone is not interesting for the Exchange.
  • Sylph Orbs – similar as above, OK but nothing spectacular.
  • Smelting Stones are not bad I would say, especially for players who have a lower smelting level. But once you get into the 5000 stones needed for 1 level then these quantities will not impress you. Still, 1000 metal gear chests  would yield an expected 651 stones (in addition to other rewards) which is like 6 Rave’s worth of rewards. So this is why I say “not bad”.
  • Charge Fragments: i’d say forget about it, the quantity is not significant (it helps a little bit as a side reward).
  • Animation Stones: if you were present on the last 2 major exchanges where players were flooded with packs of 9999 animation stones then this is an item to ignore completely.
  • Green Pennants = declaration of idiocy by game admins

Pennant Exchange Report Image / Table:

This is a large and very clear picture. If it opens small for you click on it to see bigger.


  • Did you like my report?
  • Did anything in the findings surprise you? Did you expect something different?
  • Was this Wartune report useful for you to make a decision for your Metal Gear?

Matched Links from DolyGames Sites / Google


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My goal is to reach 300 PATRON SUPPORTERS to help pay my monthly costs. Currently I have 29 Patrons! (Also thanks to Patrons who supported in the past!)

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  1. better lucky exchange choice i think.

  2. Cosmos I always Love the idea about showing the chart how much the % drops rate better than not showing it and giving us few tips what is best to get. Cause not showing I could have waste those Metal Gear item for nothing. lol

    • ya, i do the best i can to help everyone, thanks

  3. I also Love the idea posting information even you also a player but it’s fine at least you helping us to choose which is best to go with or show us any new patch or good tips. Better than Forum not much giving what so good or etc. So keep the good work Cosmos 🙂

    • thank you for appreciating my work 🙂

  4. Sorry for my NOTunderstanding, but shouldn’t drop be 100% in total? ( it gives over 380% togather )

    • Hi Rual. No. What you refer to is a different type of analysis. In this analysis items were grouped to make it easy for people to see. For example 3 Cast Stones drop and 10 Cast Stones drop are grouped into one line of Cast Stones. Therefore I wrote for example that if you open 1000 chests you can expect 48.2% of Cast Stones, i.e. 482, which are of course made up of many individual drops of 3 and 10.
      I also do the type of analysis you refer to, if you look at my previous reports you can find that.
      – COSMOS

  5. fully confused on this table. not was better show numbers and all rewards?

    • I have done that.
      Look it is super simple – you take your chests and multiply by the 1st column called “Qty per Chest”.
      So you have 300 chests and want to know how many Smelting Stones you will get? You do 300 x 0.65 = 195 is what you will get approximately
      Want to know clothing shards for your 300 chests? Again 300 x 0.32 = 96 you will get.
      It’s extremely simple.
      – COSMOS

  6. very good analysis

    • thanks lady 🙂

  7. The point of the lucky exchange is a big mistake for r2…if we’re were not interesting in the lucky rewards (in this case pennants) then that means the point of THAT lucky exchange is pointless. They definetly need to change it into something more worthwhile if it’s about pennants.

  8. im glad they put clothing shards in their i recieved 122 clothing shards which is a big help but very confused why pennents rare was only 1 as stage 1 low sky trail gave 4 i would of liked to see 2 or even 3 pennents in the rare

  9. our event has no clothing shards ,also idiocy of devs cause we have no clothing shard drops except few from free cloth chest and clothing id

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