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Lucky Exchange is not a Nerf

Hey guys, we have seen some complaints by players saying that Lucky Exchange is a major nerf, so I make this clarification article to say that it is not.

Before Lucky Exchange we had event chests which had a range of drops and a chance to get clothing shards. This is still exactly the same as you can see on the picture below (bottom part) you have the same item drops and you still have a chance to receive clothing shards.

On top of this, what is new in Lucky Exchange, is the fact that every 31st exchange is a guaranteed drop of a “Rare Item”, which means essentially a 100% chance on 1 out of 31 chests to receive a clothing shard (1/2/10) or a clothing item. Whereas before it was possible to open 100 chests and get even zero clothing items.

The only disadvantage of the Lucky Exchange is the fact that it is limited by time. We could keep event chests forever and open whenever we wish but now we are “forced” to use the event items within a given time. This is however a minor issue as there is no great harm in using event items during the event. And since the gold limit has been increased then those people who want to have good savings of gold can do so and don’t need to keep chests to open during rainy days.

Another potential advantage is that this new “tabbed” system allows the devs/publishers to add multiple exchanges. We currently have a “basic” event-chest-type exchange and a new one opened up with the casher-clothing-type exchange, but theoretically speaking, they could create multiple exchanges for multiple items in the future (not saying that they will, just saying that the technical possibility now exists).

Lucky Exchange 30 Sep 2016

Matched Links from DolyGames Sites / Google


  1. yea but now 1 clothing shard or 1 beast soul is considered a “rare” item

    • No, use your eyes and see that they are located BOTH under “Rare Item” above AND under “And a chance to receive” below.
      – Cosmos

      • exactly

      • = Nerf

  2. all i see is listed as a rare item the “1” shard .and by personal experience opening or exchanging 22 them gave me 0 wich was not the case before.
    btw i like the “use your eyes” in your comment ^^ i wasnt attacking you bro, just my opinion on the change

    • There are 1, 2 and 10 shards shown under “Rare Items” and there are 1, 2, and 10 shards shown under “And a chance to get…” for every drop. This is visible both in-game as well as on the picture in this article.

      22 sample size is not sufficient for any statistics. You could have gotten 3 x 10 shards which would be huge luck and then concluded that this was great or you could have gotten nothing extra at all, which you said happened to you. I have made a lot of drop rate reports you can see under the Analysis chapter and I try to use as high sample size as possible.

      You are right, I was being a meanie with the “use your eyes”, sorry, but it is so clear and obvious that all drops are shown clearly and they do not deserve criticism on this issue (happy to support on other issues where they do deserve criticism).

      – Cosmos

      • “I am sorry, but” implies you are not sorry.

    • not the first time he’s been rude/offensive when someone voices an opinion that doesn’t match his own.

      • Although I did write “sorry”, not that you care about facts, I am not the bloody president, I am a normal player and I can easily say look at the damn picture it is obviously clear that the drops are shown. It has NOTHING to do with my opinion, it is on the damn picture. So if you want to start a witch hunt based on this, go ahead.
        – Cosmos

      • listen cosmos ppl will judge your stuff and put it down and this issue right here some ppl they dont like it soem does that there problem not our so please dont get all huffed and puff about it and please keep the cussing to 0 please i dont want ppl reporting profainty on this website.

    • 0 out of twenty sounds like massive nerf comparing to previous almost one out of three.

      Saddening. But not unexpected with mini-shard exchanges to clothing shard with limit of 99.

      Hopefully it’s just a fluke and strain of bad luck on your end.

  3. but open the chest or this new type of chest is still so horribly rare in bs and cs? i prefered exchange the chests in bs or in cs. should be nice have a data on this.

    • Well that’s up to you and all of us to gather data and make the analysis like we have been doing on this site, so we should make the drop rates to see the statistics and to do that players can send us the data from their exchanges or make the analysis and send us to publish for everyone.
      So until we have such analysis done nobody can claim that the drops are higher or lower.
      So let’s do it, gather exchange data and email to us and if we receive enough data we can compile, analyze and publish.
      – Cosmos

      • a my friend have exchange 29 chests and only 4 cs.

        this was that he have writen to me :

        29 chest: 4 clot shard, mount hoof 24, eud res red essence 6, 5600000 gold, pure refined cristal 4, eud warphat cristal 8, eud res essence 16, e armor 1.

        i continue to believe that 29 cs was better. exchanging these 29 chests. unluckly wartune have putted again the limit 10 10 exchange cs and not at 99 as before.

        rewards was as i thought. are bads.

  4. Hey Cosmos some of us understand statistics lol, and if people aren’t happy they can still exchange 30 chests for a clothing item and NOTHING else 😉

    • exactly. but not only this. rewards are all common and drop in few quantity.

  5. Clothing items were about 1.5% odds of getting them by opening boxes (about that towards the end). Getting them guaranteed after a certain amount is an improvement(3.3% if my math is right). I guess people are just upset that it’s event items and not skeleton keys you use to exchange for those items. As you said, the one downside is that you have to exchange before event ends. Before, you could open boxes at your leisure.

    • Not sure your figures are correct. Here is the report we made in July on the Marshmallow chests (and all chests are like this) based on 1860 chest openings of data which is sufficient / good sample size where to prove/show that we get a clothing shard 31.5% of cases which means in average roughly 1 clothing shard from 30 chests.
      – Cosmos

  6. my major objection is people who had chests could open them even after the event was over and new ones were introduced, this way u have to pay good attention when they expire in order not to land with bunch of useles items u can sell for 1000 gold

    • lol true… i not have still thinked on it. then is twice a nerf.

  7. actually you cant say yet if it is good or bad because yes as you say the items are the same but to do the exchange in this event you need bat wings but take sepulcrum event you used to get allot of chests yes so if you get the same amount of bat wings or whatever they will use then yes it works out as its not a nerf as you called it but if you get less then it very clearly is but we cant see on these events yet as they don’t give allot anyway

    • Sure, but so far all events have exact same drops. I am doing event reports every day so I can see if rewards change and so far nothing has changed, it is exact same amount of mini-items and “event chests” a.k.a. bat wings.
      – Cosmos

  8. How can one item be “normal”and “rare” drop at same time?

    Something wrong there…. Use ur brain….

    • On every exchange, you have a chance to get clothing shards.

      On every 31st exchange, you are guaranteed clothing shards or clothing. How hard is that to comprehend?

      • surelly have have understood. but he meant that a thing common how be be also rare?

      • You also get a chance of receiving clothing on every exchange as well, its not limited to shards only. I Got several pieces of clothing doing exchanges below 29.

  9. you get less clothing shard so its a complete nerf, dunno why you said its not.

  10. if this is not a nerf..then why i can use only 29 per try? why not let it to use 100 in one click?
    maybe bcause the possibilities is more if i can click 100 times? o yes!!!

  11. I don’t know why people complain this is not a nerf… you clearly get less clothing shards and yeah alright you have the chance to get a new clothing as a rare item but “1 clothing shard” is a rare item too. So… for 300 chest you can get only 10 clothing shards so far as a minimum reward.

  12. The Lucky Exchange is a useless, it gonna take forever to collect 30 item to exchange some random item different than a Chest. Cause having a Chest if you have 30, could get more rewards in loots amount but 30 item to exchange it almost make that 1 Exchange for a 1 chest less rewards loot. I better off there bring back the Chest instead of that exchange.

    Alot of Player couldn’t get those item to exchange, especially the wings. getting Item to Exchange for Clothing Chest might have descend chance to drop a wing & more random stuff. If more 100x Mini-Item to exchange Clothing Chest for 10x Chest will be so great so as the Chest Drop for rewards doing Event can get more Random Loots just in a chest. But now Lucky Exchange need 30 Mini-Item to exchange 1 Random Loot (for just 1 chest). Still not wroth it even for non-casher Player cant even get that many Mini-Item to exchange it unless Casher can from buying in the shop,Epic Spender and Cash event could get more Mini-Item to exchange it.

    Cause my Alt couldnt get more than 30 Mini-Item in one day only get at least 22 Mini-item in holy Forge doing 100 times and he is non-cash. My Alt is free player and can only get 22 each day so total of 66 for only 3 days when the events is over still my toon didnt get any clothes just crappy item.

    I better off having Event Chest back could get more item when opening a chest 🙂

  13. Don’t worry COSMOS, literally everyone who complains about this change is a moron. Lucky Exchange is slightly better than the old system of simply opening chests. At least now we are guarenteed a ‘rare’ item every 31 chests, even if that ‘rare’ item is 1 Clothing Shard. Still better than opening chests, but only slightly better.

    The only valid downside is you need to exchange them during the event, but anyone with half a brain can do that. If you forget to exchange and the event ends, you are simply an idiot.

    • or simple someone must be off for some days…. and when will happens to you, surelly you’ll not be an idiot.

      • If someone goes offline for the days of the exchange, they won’t have any chests to exchange, obviously. Use your brain, fool.

  14. After the sylph event I opened some 150 chests and although I did not do precise statistics, it appears that approximately we get the same stuff (49 shards I got 3 kinds of clothing).
    Keep up the good work Cosmos!

  15. well i think the mount is easier to get i used 31 new beast cards and got mount from rare drop so was very lucky lol

  16. Lucky Exchange for the mount is EXTREMELY good. I’ve seen about 15 mounts in world chat, today. And people thought it was a nerf, LOL

    • i reply to you. players have used 1200 chests for have them. before they not bought them so often. free players = 1 mount every 120 weeks as average. i not want risk . i not take the mount. same think for the wings but 1 every 12 weeks. 4 times in a mount as average.

      • I have no idea what you just said, but I have seen the same person get the mount 7 times in 5 minutes. And a few people got lots of the mount. The drop rate is HIGH every 31 chests, thanks to Lucky Exchange.

  17. Just to correct my first comment i opened about 180 of the chests and every 31st one was indeed a piece of gear so thats cool and my fear of getting just 1 shard was false. ty again for your work doly guys:)

  18. really? i use 300 times the lucky exchanged and just got 35 clothing shards, this suck, maybe i quit the game

  19. Someone from my server gotten six (6) razor mount card from the mount lucky exchange thing.

  20. some 1 on my server said razor card gives 2k beast souls when recycled can some 1 check this

    • Yup, the razor card if recycle give 2k beast soul back.

  21. In the past days i collected batwings and after exchanging some for items i “opened” them in lucky exchange.

    Roughly 420 batwings and collected 150 clothingshards and 11 pieces of clothing and a huge pile of gold. In my opinion this is better than the boxes (altough this was the first time for the lucky exchange) because in all earlier events de droprate was lower. This one time could be luck but i hope that the droprate for clothing in the future is as high as now because engulfing clothing is a great for upping clothinglevel. 🙂

    Another plus is the droprate of the other items (hoofs, res and so on), it seems to be lower.

    In my case i could have been just lucky but for now i can’t say that it is all nerfed.

  22. For me it’s still not good when we are hunting some exchange event , cause of time is limited And being force to used. I thought this lucky exchange is for some longtime item like skeleton keys and other

  23. Well if u have the same amounts of chests before patch and after patch(as in opening before patch and lucky-exchanging after patch u will see that they Nerfed the drop rate of cloth pcs… dunno about the others I saw I got more gold though….

  24. The lucky exchange might be modified. We might be guaranteed a clothing shard per exchange plus other stuff because it affects all players. Maybe someday they’ll add the clothing shop.

  25. Definitely NOT a nerf! Since the change I have gotten the last two new mounts. Previously I have not gotten new mount from a chest in more than six months! The odds of getting a +500 mount is much higher this way than the old method. Yesterday I got the mount using a total of 60 Bat Wings II!

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